{"id":153,"date":"2008-10-19T11:33:19","date_gmt":"2008-10-19T09:33:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/?p=153"},"modified":"2008-10-23T17:56:37","modified_gmt":"2008-10-23T15:56:37","slug":"strategine-ateities-scenariju-galia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/?p=153","title":{"rendered":"Strategin\u0117 ateities scenarij\u0173 galia"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><strong>&#8222;&#8230;tie, kurie puikiai kaunasi, pergal\u0117s siekia strategine galia, o nesikliauja vien tik \u017emon\u0117mis. Be to, jie geba teisingai pasirinkti \u017emones ir taikyti strategin\u0119 gali\u0105&#8221;<\/strong> &#8211; Sun Tzu.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0160iek tiek tarsi atitolkime nuo kritini\u0173 aplink\u0173, kuriose randam\u0117s kartu su m\u016bs\u0173 valstybe, ir pabandykime \u012f jas pa\u017evelgti kitaip &#8211; scenarij\u0173 ir permain\u0173 kampu. Vizij\u0173 k\u016bryba -mokslinis metodas, leid\u017eiantis generuoti k\u016brybi\u0161kus, motyvuotus scenarijus, neretai tampan\u010dius \u012fsp\u016bdinga ir stipria realybe. Ypa\u010d svarbus \u0161is metodas \u012fveikiant permain\u0173 laikotarpi\u0173 neapibr\u0117\u017etumus. Jo esm\u0117 &#8211; permain\u0173 \u017eenkl\u0173 atpa\u017einimas bei galimybi\u0173 i\u0161naudojimas taikant ateities scenarij\u0173 k\u016brimo principus. Scenarij\u0173 k\u016bryba &#8211; tai ir strategin\u0117s vadybos metodas, padedantis sukoncentruoti valstyb\u0117s energij\u0105 \u012f\u017evelgiant savo galimos ateities kont\u016brus bei jos siekiant. Savo ruo\u017etu tai \u012fprasmina valstyb\u0117s permainas, suteikia joms krypt\u012f ir apibr\u0117\u017etum\u0105, sukuria nauj\u0173 permain\u0173 prielaidas. I\u0161 esm\u0117s scenarij\u0173 k\u016brimas padeda geriau suprasti permain\u0173 tikslus, i\u0161veda valstyb\u0119 \u012f kokybi\u0161kai naujo veiklos lygmens erdv\u0119.<\/p>\n<p>Jeigu sugeb\u0117jimo keistis bei orientuotis \u012f b\u016bsimas situacijas koncepcija b\u016bt\u0173 tinkamai suprasta ir taikoma, b\u016bt\u0173 \u012fmanoma i\u0161vengti brangi\u0173 klaid\u0173 priimant strateginius, visos valstyb\u0117s raid\u0105 lie\u010dian\u010dius, o kartais ir kei\u010dian\u010dius sprendimus. Gal net neb\u016bt\u0173 bandoma spr\u0119sti ambicingus, strateginius u\u017edavinius, nuo kuri\u0173 priklauso vis\u0173 valstyb\u0117s pilie\u010di\u0173 gyvenimo kokyb\u0117, neturint tam b\u016btin\u0173 resurs\u0173. Nelauktume ne\u012fmanomai greit\u0173 strategini\u0173 permain\u0173 rezultat\u0173. Taigi, b\u016bt\u0173 ma\u017eiau neteising\u0173 strategini\u0173 sprendim\u0173. Kurdami vidin\u012f valstyb\u0117s geb\u0117jim\u0105 keistis priklausomai nuo atsitinkan\u010di\u0173 realybi\u0173 galetume j\u0105 paversti konkurencingesne, suformuoti <em>kritin\u0119 kompetencij\u0105 <\/em>&#8211; geb\u0117jim\u0105 nuolat keistis nuolat besikei\u010dian\u010diame pasaulyje. I\u0161tverti ir i\u0161likti efektyviais kritin\u0117se situacijose, nesudegti krizi\u0173 \u017earij\u0173 duob\u0117se,\u00a0kartais \u012f jas\u00a0netgi ne\u012fkristi.\u00a0 Sugeb\u0117jimas keistis bei adekva\u010diai vertinti kintan\u010dias situacijas gali b\u016bti laikomas nuolatine pastanga, profesine kompetencija, kuri ugdoma ir gr\u016bdinama. Did\u017eiausia rizika &#8211;\u00a0neugdyti \u0161io sugeb\u0117jimo.<\/p>\n<p>Suprantama, reali ateitis bet kuriuo\u00a0atveju bus pakankamai netik\u0117ta \u012fvairi\u0173 daugelio scenarij\u0173 element\u0173 s\u0105veikos i\u0161rai\u0161ka. Daug ko i\u0161 viso ne\u012fmanoma sugeb\u0117ti \u012f\u017evelgti.\u00a0Beje,\u00a02000 metais teko glaud\u017eiai bendradarbiauti su Europos S\u0105jungos\u00a0raidos scenarij\u0173 &#8222;Europa -2010&#8221;\u00a0k\u016brybine grupe. Reziumuojant &#8211;\u00a0\u0161iai dienai atsitinka pilkasis,\u00a0spar\u010diai tams\u0117jantis scenarijus, kuriam\u00a0atsitikti tuo metu\u00a0buvo teikiama nelabai auk\u0161ta tikimyb\u0117. Deja. Nors dar ne\u00a02010.. Scenarij\u0173 k\u016brimas negali visi\u0161kai eliminuoti neai\u0161kumo, ta\u010diau \u0161is metodas gali mums pad\u0117ti sukurti racional\u0173 elgesio model\u012f, padedant\u012f\u00a0suprasti ir, galimybi\u0173 ribose\u00a0s\u0117kmingiau\u00a0valdyti\u00a0valstyb\u0117s\u00a0\u00a0vidaus ir jos aplinkos neapibr\u0117\u017etumus bei paradoksus, kurti joje veikian\u010di\u0173 organizacij\u0173 <em>strategin\u0117s galios scenarijus<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8222;&#8230;tie, kurie puikiai kaunasi, pergal\u0117s siekia strategine galia, o nesikliauja vien tik \u017emon\u0117mis. Be to, jie geba teisingai pasirinkti \u017emones ir taikyti strategin\u0119 gali\u0105&#8221; &#8211; Sun Tzu. \u0160iek tiek tarsi<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/?p=153\" class=\"more-link\">T\u0119skite skaitym\u0105 \u2192<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Strategin\u0117 ateities scenarij\u0173 galia<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-suntzu","tag-scenarijai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=153"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions\/155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suntzu.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}